In 2020, the United States did not have election night so much as election week. Factors including a slow count of mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania delayed declaring Joe Biden the winner until the Saturday after Election Day, giving President Donald Trump time to allege fraud — allegations that resulted in the Jan. 6, 2021, effort to overturn the results.
This year, some — but only some — of the thousands of people responsible for administering U.S. elections have learned the lessons of four years ago. Americans should prepare themselves for another difficult post-election period — even if it is unlikely to be as chaotic as 2020.
Recently, supporters of Mr. Trump on Georgia’s State Election Board voted to require counties to hand-count every ballot, which could delay reporting by weeks. Local election workers warn it will almost certainly produce more errors and that they won’t be able to comply with a requirement to complete counting by the day following the election, especially in large jurisdictions that tend to favor Democrats.
In many places, counting mail-in ballots could be a flash point once again. Even as Mr. Trump calls absentee voting “corrupt,” Republicans are trying to encourage more supporters to cast ballots by mail while simultaneously maneuvering to invalidate ballots that don’t precisely comply with sometimes complex rules. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled Friday, Sept. 20, that mail-in ballots can be thrown out if voters do not write accurate dates on the envelope used to return them. Election officials are fretting about potential problems with mail delivery and warning that counting every vote could take days following Nov. 5.
The U.S. Postal Service appears to be taking seriously concerns about mail reliability expressed recently by the National Association of Secretaries of State. The nonpartisan group warned that “lost or delayed election mail” risks disenfranchising voters. Postmaster General Louis DeJoy replied that training has been improved to expedite delivery of election-related material, and that in 2020 nearly 98 percent of ballots were returned to election officials within three days. All the same, voters should return ballots early — with plenty of time to spare — and give extra attention to every requirement. Many states allow voters to “cure” ballots missing critical information within a certain period of time.
Even if USPS excels, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin prohibit the counting of mail-in ballots until Election Day, no matter when they arrive. This slowed down the count in 2020. Divided governments in both states failed to fix this quirk in how they count. Arizona and Nevada have often taken multiple days to fully count, too. Elections officials say they’ve hired more workers to process ballots, but it will probably still take longer to tally the high volume of ballots in urban centers such as Philadelphia and Milwaukee than the lower number in redder, rural areas.
If Democrats continue to vote by mail more than Republicans, early returns will probably show Mr. Trump leading, but the gap will close as votes are tallied. Mr. Trump used this so-called red mirage in 2020 to declare victory and insist that the counting stop. When Mr. Biden overtook him, Mr. Trump claimed it was the result of Democrats dumping ballots rather than an entirely foreseeable and legitimate consequence of voting patterns and state counting policies.
Mr. Trump might well win this election fair and square. Polls show the race is neck and neck. It’s possible he takes an early lead in the count and holds it, or that Republicans vote by mail in greater numbers than forecast, dulling the expected blue shift. In 2020, Democrats returned 18 million ballots by mail compared, with about 10 million from Republicans across 20 states with party registration data. In the 2022 midterms, Democrats sent in 7.6 million mail-in ballots, compared with 5.1 million from Republicans, according to the U.S. Elections Project. But commentators and voters should nevertheless prepare for an uncertain result on the evening of Nov. 5.
One piece of good news is that a bipartisan group of lawmakers is trying to avert a reprise of the Jan. 6 mess. This month, 32 members of Congress signed a “Unity Commitment” in which they agreed to respect the results of the 2024 election, attend the inauguration and serve as a voice for calm, regardless of who wins. The list, organized by Reps. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) and Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.), includes half a dozen Republicans. True, the number should be far higher; not one of the 139 House Republicans who voted against certifying Mr. Biden’s victory joined the group. But it is one sign that next Jan. 6 might not be a disaster. After 2021, Congress tightened the electoral vote counting rules. And Capitol security will be extremely tight; no rioters will break in to stop the count.
For most Americans, the imperative is clear: vote. Two NASA astronauts stranded on the International Space Station plan to cast absentee ballots in Texas. If they can figure out how to vote, you can, too. Ballots are starting to be mailed out in Nevada, Wisconsin, Georgia and North Carolina. But it’s not too late to register. If you’re eligible, go to vote.gov.
The Washington Post
