Now that the Supreme Court has overturned Roe v. Wade, abortion could soon become illegal in half of the country. Or so Democrats warn. But it’s impossible to know how the debate will play out in many states. And a study this month by the Guttmacher Institute, which supports abortion rights, suggests that the practical consequences for abortion could be far less severe.
Many GOP states have increased abortion regulation in recent years, including parental consent and notification requirements for minors and mandated waiting periods. Yet abortions increased 8% nationwide between 2017 and 2020, according to Guttmacher’s abortion provider survey.
More abortions aren’t something to celebrate, especially as births simultaneously declined 6% in the same period. But Guttmacher claims it may be a positive development “if it means people are getting the health care they want and need.” This is a tacit admission that stricter laws in GOP states haven’t stopped women from obtaining abortions.
One reason is that left-leaning states have expanded access to abortion. Abortions increased by 25% between 2017 and 2020 in Illinois as more pregnant women came from surrounding states with more restrictive laws. Illinois in 2018 also began covering abortions with state Medicaid funds. Abortion providers responded to increasing demand by opening more clinics.
Progressives claim traveling to other states to get an abortion will be a grave hardship for women. But the Guttmacher report suggests that thousands of women already do so. Many employers in recent months have also offered to cover the travel costs of employees in states where abortion is banned to get an abortion elsewhere.
Abortions have also increased as “local and national abortion funds increased their capacity and helped even more people pay for their abortions,” the report says. Many pro-abortion rights groups have used the potential demise of Roe to boost their fundraising. The Supreme Court’s ruling will be a fundraising boon for Planned Parenthood.
States that are more likely to ban abortion already regulate it more strictly, so the Court’s decision may have a smaller effect in those states. The Guttmacher report notes that because restrictions in recent years “were adopted in states generally considered hostile to abortion rights already, they may not have played as much of a role as the measures expanding access” in other states.
This evidence from an abortion-rights group suggests that abortion will still be widely available in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision on Roe v. Wade. States will respond to the Court’s decision in different ways, and that’s the beauty of the U.S. federalist system.
The Wall Street Journal
