US Shale lacks the capacity to come to the rescue of consumers battling sky high energy prices.
Pioneer CEO Scott Sheffield
Liberal writers are already giving Team Biden credit for defusing the apparent pending Russian invasion of the Ukraine.. The media cites these concerns as reason for the 622 point plunge in the DJIA Thursday. Really, how does anyone know the real intentions of Mr. Putin?
Did Putin ever intend to invade the Ukraine? Everyone is assuming that but perhaps not. Perhaps massing troops around the Ukraine is what Alfred Hitchcock used to call a McGuffin. A McGuffiin is something that moved the plot along but was not really central to the plot. Mr. Putin heads a country with a diminishing population. There is no immigration problem as outsiders do not care to live in Russia. There is no consumer economy. Oil and natural gas comprise half of the GDP. Mr. Putin honestly believes the fall of the Soviet Empire (Berlin Wall 1989) was a tragic event. Better that the old Soviet Empire is restored in modern fashion. So what to do?
Cut a deal with OPEC that it will not agree to expand oil production. Modernize the Russian Army while the US scurries out of Afghanistan and stumbles through COVID. Then engage in some serious brinkmanship just to see who blinks first.
Here is what Putin has accomplished without firing a shot thus far.
He has established himself as a force on the world stage. He is once again a serious player in geo-politics. He forced the leaders of France, Germany, USA all to raise his profile by visiting with him via phone or in person.
The prices of his oil and natural gas reserves have risen 20% since moving the troops to the border. Oddly I have not seen any columns speculating on how many limit positions he may have taken in oil options or futures betting on higher prices. My bet is that Russia did just that. By not invading, he gets the Pipeline to Germany and the sale of Russian gas.
He has increased Russian national pride by ‘stranding up to the West.’ Note that Team Biden openly said he would not fight, a small victory in itself to the Russian people Bernie Sanders warns of world-wide catastrophe if Russia invades the Ukraine. Putin probably knew he could count on that sort of support.
Mr. Putin cowered NATO, or what is left of it, to re-consider ever inviting Ukraine as a member, Does anyone really think the French or Italians are going to sacrifice their sons on the Ukraine alter, especially if Biden has already bowed out?
And Vlad is doing pretty well himself. Go to youtube.com and search for Putin’s Black Sea Palace and Putin’s yacht. These are jaw dropping photos. Elon Musk started from strength gathering Federal Subsidies for his electric cars until he finally showed a profit. Putin began with a weak hand but has turned the venture into headlines around the world while increasing the value of his energy resources. My take is that Putin is the Man of the Year in terms of getting what he wants.
