The stock market measured by the NASD 100 or NDX peaked July 11. This is the most tech heavy of all the indexes. The tech stocks, notably the Magnificent Seven led the way up. They will now lead the way down.
NDX completed its first leg down last Friday. All of the Magnificent Seven are down, even Apple and Nvidia. Wednesday was a big up day. This likely completed most of the counter trend rise. Expect a bit more upside before the next high is recorded. The following move down should be much larger than the drop from July 11.
We have been patient with metals and crude oil. That patience is now paying off. Gold made a new intraday high Wednesday. It closed near the all-time high at $2,473. Silver continues to lag but jumped 1.45% Wednesday. The Sprott family of metal ETFs is a good way to approach this. Gold and silver fund is CEF. The gold fund is PHYS. Silver is PSLV.
Crude oil posted a large 4.26% advance. It also recorded a higher low at $75 than the last low at $73. Gasoline futures also jumped 4.19%. Apache (APA) finally found support at $27 mid-June. It has now rallied to $31.19.
The three-month T bill rate has fallen to 5.13%. The Fed Funds rate is 5.5%. If the difference or spread widens to a full half point, the FED will be pressured to lower rates. The Fed did nothing at its Wednesday announcement. Be alert to this difference. This is also evidence of my belief that the FED merely follows, not sets, the interest rate market.
The media is now full tilt for Kamala Harris. They are re-writing her aversion to offshore drilling and fracking. This looks like election year fiction writing. Her record in fact is to eliminate fossil fuels altogether starting with fracking and offshore drilling elimination. And she wants to cut the defense budget as two wars widen. Europe is all but expecting a new Russian invasion. Only a fraction of our naval fleet is at ready. This adds up to an important election in November.
